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Climate Insights – Why we are headed to doom?
The weather around us influences many factors in our ecosystem directly and indirectly. Continual patterns in the weather constitute climate, and minimal changes in climate mean a stable weather. Over the years, climate change has become a force to reckon with, leading us to reimagine and unlearn facets of Earth that we could have taken for granted. What is climate change, then?
Primarily, climate change is defined as the “long-term shift in global or regional climate patterns,” with focus given to the rise in temperatures from the mid 20th century. Along with secondary factors, climate change leads to unpredictability in weather and biotic conditions. Secondary factors include air pollution, the occurrence of extreme weather events, and more. Why has this become hard to understand?
Common misconceptions exist regarding climate change which weighs down the gravity of the situation. Climate cycles exist over time, fluctuating the average temperature of the Earth above and below 15 C. These cycles are natural fluctuations balanced through the course of years, but now there has only been a steep rise. Understanding the man-made spikes to these fluctuations is essential to uncover the reasons behind the same. Rising temperatures can be heavily attributed to the greenhouse effect (which in itself is confused with climate change interchangeably). Two activities by humankind help fuel this effect, namely the combustion of fossil fuels and deforestation. These were accelerated through industrialization, and the world is one degree warmer after this widespread event. One degree as such is mistaken to be a small quantity of change given the expanse of the world, and this is where climate change deniers state that climate change is not real. Visible effects arise from this slight increase in temperature. Water levels have increased by more than 3.6mm on average in a span of 10 years preceding 2015. Spring seasons witness snow melting sooner, and animals all over are shifting to cooler places. These changes have time and again been connected to natural climate change. So what is natural climate change?
Ice cores are used to understand how climate change has occurred over 800,000 years. Given the Sun’s radiation, temperature levels vary, altering the greenhouse gases present in the atmosphere, in turn, varying surface temperatures and thus creating a feedback loop. Upon analyzing the same, Carbon Dioxide concentration levels were found to be between 180-300 ppmv (parts per million by volume). This range dictated natural climate change, and more importantly, it did not alter significantly. Existing climate effects like the Milankovitch cycles and El Niño Southern Oscillation effectively made the temperature shifts. These revolved around the tilt of the Earth’s axis and changing ocean water temperatures. Now, one could ask how these effects are not contributing. These effects happen over the course of hundreds of years, while we are witnessing yearly monumental changes. There was only constant, predictable change before. How is this different now?
More than a 40% increase has been observed between pre-industrialization and post-industrialization, with CO2 levels crossing 390 ppmv. Arguments exist as to how natural wildfires and volcanoes contribute to this surge. Human activities make up emissions that are 135 times more than that obtained from volcanoes, effectively releasing over 30 billion tonnes of CO2.
Carbon dioxide emissions in US from 1960-2018
Coming to wildfires, physical man-made wildfires are on the rise, which is further accentuated due to climate change. Humans are used to seeing stuff happen in a binary, linear style. Climate change is a series of spiraling feedback loops. Wildfires continue to get worse due to climate change, further worsening climate change. What exactly are these man-made activities that this text keeps quoting?
Wildfires in US from 2000-2020
Apart from the primary activities quoted above, other routine activities like livestock farming contribute to Methane emissions. Appliances in households and offices use fluorinated gases, which can contribute to 23000 times the warming effect of CO2. Pesticides and fertilizers emit nitrous compounds into the atmosphere. With rapid urbanization, cement is produced and used in massive amounts, contributing to 3% of the total emissions.
Post industrialization has witnessed rapid growth in technology. Technology is backed by data and the internet, which require servers to receive and transmit. Such servers require high amounts of energy, which is stated to be doubling every four years. Eventually by 2040, energy usage owing to server operations is set to account for 14% of the global total energy usage. This significant factor will leave a subtle yet heavy carbon footprint, as more people continue to use the internet. How exactly have all these effects and activities changed the climate now?
The energy use in the US from 1971 – 2015
Temperature, the primary indicator, has only been on the rise since 1980. We are used to hearing how every year has become the hottest on record. 2020, despite the presence of La Niña, a cooling effect, was the second hottest on record. The 1.5C shift we talk about may seem small for one but also comes with a very differential increase from the previous years. These minor increases, seemingly misunderstood as humanity’s best efforts to curb global warming to be working, are not to be neglected. These are minor owing to the Earth’s inertia to contain the temperatures through its oceans. Water has a high heat capacity meaning the temperatures do not react immediately to the increasing emissions. This “immediately” ends in 2030, where the temperature imbalance surpasses this inertia and several projections begin to alter, fundamentally ending in grave consequences.
Temperature anomaly since 1880
Spring snow cover is an indicator of how much ice remains in the North pole after the snow season. The area covered by snow continues to decrease over the years, after 1987. Even through a few increments in the area cover, the decrements more than compensate effectively (-0.5 million sq. km per year) to decrease the cover. Decreasing snow cover is another glaring sign, as the Earth’s ability to reflect sunlight at crucial locations will decrease, and freshwater availability is reduced.
Subsequently, global sea levels have risen by 24 cm compared to 1880. Unsurprisingly, a third of that change came from the last 25 years. This will play a huge hand in catastrophic events like shoreline expansion, flooding, and storms. These alarming rises are from massive Antarctic ice losses (199 billion tons per year) and existing thermal expansion.
In tandem, extreme rainfall events have become frequent, with rainfall intensity increasing by 10% and chances of the occurrence of such events increasing by 40%. These are caused by warm air providing extra water vapor to moving storm systems.
In the big scheme of things, biodiversity shifts have become widespread. Warmer temperatures lead to more pests and less water in the soil for the plantations to thrive. Fire seasons become more prolonged, and the vicious cycle continues. For fauna, sea animals continue to suffer from mean ocean temperatures rising. Biodiversity continues to adapt through developing new physical traits or changing life cycles, or shifting habitat entirely.
So much has happened already. What has been done to negate this, and what will happen further?
Read the next article in the series for Climate Insights.
At Unisights, we believe in stories. And the stories that are formed on the basis of facts & numbers, they can be visualized properly and understood efficiently. Our master storytellers leaves no stone unturned in bringing out these statistics to you to understand and make better decisions which also happens to be our motto for our clients. If you are in dilemma or not but still want your business to fly, take no time and connect with us today for a no cost consultation. We have an image of impressing our clients in the first meeting itself. See for yourself!
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